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WP1

Vulnerability Identification & Management

 

Objectives

WP 1 conducts the basic (but fundamental) analysis on the different origins of blackouts and develops a system for fast and precise identification of the vulnerability of the European power grid. Further more, an Incident-Response System is developed to identify the most effective countermeasures to reduce these vulnerabilities.

During this work package, as well as in work packages 6, 7 and 8, some content of the deliverables may be security sensitive. Therefore, all deliverables of this project will be explored regarding security sensitive content. This revision will be carried out by the Security Consulting Board (SCB) (See Section 2.1.2).

Output of WP1 that is used as input for WP4:

  • Risk-Assessment calculation kernel (type: set of algorithms)
  • Incident-Response System  (type: set of algorithms)

 

Description of work

  • Task 1.1 – Analysis of Historic Events (Leading Partner: TrEl)
    This work step lists the major power interruptions in the developed world during the last decades and gives the lessons learned.

  • Task 1.2 –Threat Identification (Leading Partner: TrEl)
    This work step gives a list of current and future threats (both physical and cyber) – such as malicious attacks, or the massive expansion of wind and photovoltaic power (whose low predictability of the supplied load will put the transmission networks under further stress). These threats are then rated regarding the preparedness of the European power grid to handle them.

  • Task 1.3 – Vulnerability Quantification (Leading Partner: PoliTo)
    The probability of each threat to cause a blackout of catastrophic dimension within the next decade is quantified. Together with the findings of the foregone work steps, the threats and vulnerabilities of the European electricity grid are fully detected.

  • Task 1.4 – Risk Assessment System (Leading Partner: PoliTo)
    Based on the three foregoing analytical steps, in this work step a risk assessment system is developed that allows the user to detect the vulnerabilities in electricity distribution/transmission and energy production. The system – i.e. the set of algorithms – gives detailed information regarding the expected likelihood of an incident under user defined conditions (geographical region, type of threat, number of parallel events, …).

  • Task 1.5 – Vulnerability/Threat Management (Leading Partner: PoliTo)
    In this work step the countermeasures to prevent blackouts and to accelerate the restoration of lost load, if a blackout has once occurred, are given. The countermeasures include technical measures, organizational measures and educative measures. Further more, the analysed countermeasures are preventive measures as well as measures for the fast restoration of power supply after an accident.

 

Deliverables

This Work packages gives four Deliverables:

  • Del 1.1 – Report on the analysis of historic outages
    The impacts of historic power outages in the developed world are listed in a report and the lessons learned from these incidents are explained.
    Security Sensitive: NO

  • Del 1.2 – Report on vulnerability and Threat Knowledge Base
    Threats to the European Power grid are identified and the corresponding vulnerabilities are quantified by their probability to cause a blackout of catastrophic dimension in the next decade.
    Security Sensitive: NO

  • Del 1.3 – Risk Assessment calculation kernel
    The algorithms are prepared to detect the vulnerabilities of the European electricity distribution / transmission grid and the energy production facilities.
    Security Sensitive: NO

  • Del 1.4 – Incident-Response System
    The appropriate countermeasures (preventive or ad-hoc) for each threat/vulnerability are given in algorithmic form. Additionally, estimates of the costs and the impact on the level of the security of supply are given for each considered countermeasure.
    Security Sensitive: NO